Did I say 17 points?
Turns out the spread is 16 1/2. So I'll just make it simple: on my ballot (which of course doesn't count), OU goes ahead of UT if they cover, stays behind UT if they don't. That's pretty simple. I don't think people are paying enough attention to how devastating the linebacker injuries have been; if I were betting, I'd take Mizzou and the points. If they don't cover, I say, "I was right," and that includes being right about saying that OU's injuries have dragged them back down behind UT.
But if OU covers, then I will consider that I have underestimated Balagon's hard work and improvement over this season (which is after all his first in Venables's scheme) and have been wrong about OU's ability to compensate for Box's injury. And that will tell me I was wrong to think this injury took OU back below UT.
So: 16 1/2 points. Cover, or don't. Simple as that.
Now we just have to see how it turns out.